This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card at Atlanta. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a great deal of cash from this week and that I can’t wait to chase these huge prizes. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $30k belongs to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will try to receive my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at the $30k decoration, and then I will probably have a couple shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — STACK — Max Holloway $9,100 and Dustin Poirier $7,100
This was the first thing I did when salaries were published. I put these two fighters in my cash lineup and I started building from there. I anticipate this to be one of the greatest fights of all time and that I believe we get ~200 total DK points from this struggle, plus the guaranteed win. I’m okay with taking the loss when I can guarantee myself over 100 points together with the stack, but I think 150 is a secure projection for this fight and if we could lock up 3 additional wins we ought to win the vast majority of our money games. As I always saywe don’t want 6 wins for cash games so there is really no need to chase it. Just lock in a secure lineup that you think will score over 400 total points and you ought to win more H2Hs than you lose.
GPP play of the week — Nikita Krylov — $8,200
Krylov is my GPP drama of the week because he’s the definition of boom or bust. He either loses or scores over 100 DK points. That is what we desire in GPPs. This isn’t a confident choice in him winning it is just a shot at his ceiling which is what we search for in the big GPPs where we are trying to win the top $30k prize. Krylov has completed all 24 of his wins and he’s just seen the 3rd around once in his career. This is a good fight to target on either side, but I am taking Krylov for the win and that I will have a good amount of exposure to him this weekend.
Underdog play of the week — Dustin Poirier — $7,100
I had to put Poirier here. I love his floor and I think he is a live underdog. However, IF he wins, he will 100% wind up about the 1st place lineup at his $7.1k price-tag. He’s likely to score over 100 DK points if he is able to get a success here and that’s what we are pursuing in GPPs. Even in the event that you believe Max will dominate Poirier that I believe that you should possess at least 1 hedge lineup utilizing Poirier, which is an all-purpose struggle for me. Every lineup I construct will start with Dustin or Max and I’ll go on out there. Load up on this fight and make sure you find any Poirier exposure.
Fade of this week — Boston Salmon ($8,600)
It was tough to pick a fade of this week this week since I think you can make an argument for rostering everyone. I wanted to choose a popular though and I feel the favored with among the lower ceilings is Salmon. I’m picking him to win but that he won’t be going for any takedowns and if he doesn’t get a finish he likely doesn’t pay off his $8.6k price tag. I want at least 10x (86-points) when I’m rostering someone and I don’t see him getting that unless he receives a knockout. Taha is hard so I don’t observe the knockout happening. I think Salmon does make a unanimous decision win here but it likely scores in the 70’s and that will not win us the large $30k. That’s why he’s my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 66-41 for +220.23un (+$22,023) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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